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Gas Sector - Recovery momentum to continue in 2H20

2020/9/16 6:11:16 来源:招商证券 作者: 人评论

作者:Tommy WONG,Eric SIU时光:2020年09月15日重要性:普通报告行业评级:公司评级:相干股票代码:浏览权限: 该文章钻石卡、金卡、银卡客户可浏览全文摘要:Report title:Gas Sector - Recovery momentum to continue in 2H20 Analyst:Tommy WONG,Eric SIU Report t…

作者: Tommy WONG,Eric SIU
时光: 2020年09月15日
重要性: 普通报告
行业评级:
公司评级:
相干股票代码:
浏览权限:   该文章钻石卡、金卡、银卡客户可浏览全文
摘要: Report title:Gas Sector - Recovery momentum to continue in 2H20
Analyst:Tommy WONG,Eric SIU
Report type:Industry
Date:20200915
[Summary]

■ HK-listed citygas operators’ 1H20 revenue/NP declined 9%/14% on average, driving recent share price weakness but likely nearing an end
■ Overall retail 2020 gas sales vol. growth guidance range: +5% to +15% yoy; Gas cost to stay low in 2H20, benefitting operators’ gas dollar margin
■ Top picks: Kunlun Energy (135 HK, BUY, TP:HKD7.6); ENN (2688 HK, BUY, TP:HKD103)

Weak gas sales recovery dampened citygas operators’ 1H20 result
1) Weak gas sales vol. growth recovery in 1H20 (average HK-listed citygas operators’ retail gas sales vol. growth: +3.4% yoy in 1H20 vs. +14.7% yoy in 1H19); 2) the decline in gas sales ASP (early execution of non-peak season citygate price in 1Q20); and 3) connection work progress delay, have caused HK-listed citygas operators’ 1H20 revenue/net profit fell c.9%/14% yoy on average. However, thanks to cheaper gas procurement cost from upstream suppliers, majority of them recorded gas dollar margin expansion (i.e. most of them saw their gas dollar margin increasing by RMB0.02/cu m to RMB0.05/cu m in comparison to 1H19).

Recovery pace is on track; anticipate M&A to provide further boost
Going forward to 2H20, the overall situation will be further improved, as most of them have already seen their gas sales vol. growth picking up. Their optimistic views can be illustrated by the majority of their 2020 full year retail gas sales growth guidance ranging between +5% and +15% yoy. Furthermore, they indicated that there would be more M&A activities in 2H20, as the COVID-19 outbreak leads to more challenging operating environment for small operators, which will accelerate market consolidation and provide further boost of their gas sales vol. growth.

Low gas procurement cost to sustain in 2H20
In terms of gas tariff in this winter, most of them believe it will be higher than the current non-peak tariff, as consumption will be at its peak level for the year. However, they believe gas procurement cost to stay low for this year, as the overall supply remains sufficient and stable. As a result, they expect full year gas dollar margin will definitely be better than that in 2019.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Top picks: ENN and Kunlun Energy
We reiterate ENN and Kunlun Energy as our top picks for the sector. Kunlun Energy: Its shares trade at 0.7x FY21E P/B, valuation looks attractive; awaiting its Shaanxi-Beijing transmission pipeline sales to PipeChina for further re-rating; ENN: Fast recovery in gas sales vol. yoy growth (mid-teen growth in June and July), enjoys low procurement cost from its LNG import.

[投资评级界说]

公司短期评级

以报告日起6个月内,公司股价相对同期市场基准(沪深300指数)的表示为尺度:激烈引荐:公司股价涨幅超基准指数20%以上
谨慎引荐:公司股价涨幅超基准指数5-20%之间
中性:公司股价更改幅度相对基准指数介于±5%之间
回避:公司股价表示弱于基准指数5%以上

公司长期评级
A:公司长期竞争力高于行业均匀程度
B:公司长期竞争力与行业均匀程度分歧
C:公司长期竞争力低于行业均匀程度

[重要声明]
报告中的内容和看法仅供参考,并不组成对所述证券买卖的出价,在任何情形下,本报告中的信息或所表述的看法并不组成对任何人的投资建议。

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