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China Brokerage Sector - 1H19 sector performance review

2019/7/11 21:48:39 来源:招商证券 作者: 人评论

作者:Felix LUO,Allen Feng时光:2019年07月10日重要性:普通报告行业评级:公司评级:相干股票代码:浏览权限: 该文章钻石卡、金卡、银卡客户可浏览全文摘要:Report title:China Brokerage Sector - 1H19 sector performance review Analyst:Felix LUO,Allen Feng R…

作者: Felix LUO,Allen Feng
时光: 2019年07月10日
重要性: 普通报告
行业评级:
公司评级:
相干股票代码:
浏览权限:   该文章钻石卡、金卡、银卡客户可浏览全文
摘要: Report title:China Brokerage Sector - 1H19 sector performance review
Analyst:Felix LUO,Allen Feng
Report type:Industry
Date:20190710
[Summary]

■ Profit growth improved on average in June, especially for GF and HAITONG
■ SSE STAR MARKET debuting on July 22, likely to increase sector’s revenue by ~1.0% - 2.8%
■ Maintain NEUTRAL; top picks: CICC (3908 HK, BUY) and HTSC (6886 HK, BUY)

1H19 market review
As of the end of June, the cumulative daily average turnover of the A-share market increased by ~34% YoY. The balance of margin financing and securities lending decreased by ~1% YoY, accounting for ~2.1% of the total negotiable market capitalization. Cumulative amount of equity financing decreased by ~22% YoY, whereas cumulative amount of bond financing (excluding China Government Bonds, local government bonds, PBOC bills, interbank deposits and financial bonds) increased by ~32% YoY.

Profit growth improved on average in June
Benefiting from a better A-share market in June, net profits for major brokerages’ increased on average by ~26% YoY in 1H19, vs. ~24% YoY in 5M19. In particular, GF (1776 HK, NR) and HAITONG (6837 HK, NR) improved the most among major players (see Figure 6). This is in line with our earlier view that GF (high percentage of proprietary equity securities and derivatives held/net assets) and HAITONG (high reverse repos/net assets ratio) are likely to benefit more if equity market recovers.

SSE STAR Market to commence on July 22
As of July 10, there are 144 Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) applications with total proposed financing amount of ~RMB130.5 billion, according to Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE). Assuming underwriting fee rate of 3%-8%, we estimate these IPOs may lead to extra income of RMB3.9-10.4 billion for the sector (excluding other related incomes), representing ~1.0%-2.8% of the sector’s total revenue in 2018. SSE announced that STAR will commence on July 22. So far, CICC and CSC (6066 HK, NR) top the STAR sponsor league table.

Maintain NEUTRAL
China brokerage sector is trading at ~0.8x 2019E P/B ratio. Maintain “NEUTRAL” rating for the sector given volatile equity markets. Our top picks remain CICC (3908 HK, BUY) and HTSC (6886 HK, BUY) from a long-term perspective, given their technology potential and good client bases. In a short term view, GF and Haitong are likely to benefit more if equity market bounces back. Key catalysts: better-than-expected macroeconomic conditions, good capital markets; Key downside risks: an economic downturn, poor capital markets.

[投资评级界说]

公司短期评级

以报告日起6个月内,公司股价相对同期市场基准(沪深300指数)的表示为尺度:激烈引荐:公司股价涨幅超基准指数20%以上
谨慎引荐:公司股价涨幅超基准指数5-20%之间
中性:公司股价更改幅度相对基准指数介于±5%之间
回避:公司股价表示弱于基准指数5%以上

公司长期评级
A:公司长期竞争力高于行业均匀程度
B:公司长期竞争力与行业均匀程度分歧
C:公司长期竞争力低于行业均匀程度

[重要声明]
报告中的内容和看法仅供参考,并不组成对所述证券买卖的出价,在任何情形下,本报告中的信息或所表述的看法并不组成对任何人的投资建议。

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