|作者：||Jessie GUO,Edith Qian|
|摘要：||Report title:CMS Strategy Weekly (8 Jul 2019) - Strong jobs data tempers rate cut expectations
Analyst:Jessie GUO,Edith Qian
■ June nonfarm payroll well above expectations; rate cut expectations ease
■ China insists that all tariffs must be lifted for a trade deal
■ First batch of companies to start trading on STAR market on Jul 22
What’s new. 1). China-US trade friction: On Jul 3, Reuters reported that a senior US official told the Commerce Department’s enforcement staff that Huawei should still be treated as blacklisted, although Trump said US companies can resume sales to Huawei after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Jun 29. On Jul 4, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said the two countries will talk by phone in the coming week while face-to-face meetings will be scheduled. On the same day, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said for any deal to be reached, US tariffs of 25% on US$250bn of Chinese imports that remain in place must be removed. 2). On Jul 5, Shanghai Stock Exchange said the first batch of companies will start trading on the STAR (Sci-Tech innovAtion boaRd) market on Jul 22.
Macro data. US: 1). June ISM manufacturing PMI decreased to 51.7 (May: 52.1), while ISM non-manufacturing PMI edged down to 55.1 (May: 56.9). 2). June ADP nonfarm private employment rose 102,000, below expectations (May: 41,000). 3). June nonfarm payrolls rose 224,000, well above expectations (May: 72,000). Unemployment rate edged higher to 3.7% (May: 3.6%), while wage growth was 3.1% YoY, slightly below market expectations. 4). May trade deficit widened to US$55.5bn (Apr: 51.2bn).
Stock market update. HSI/MXCN/CSI300 gained 0.8%/0.9%/1.8% over the past week respectively. MXCN: Utilities (+4.3%) and Health Care (+2.9%) outperformed while Banks (-3.1%) and Diversified Financials (-0.9%) lagged. A share: Real Estate (+3.5%) and Health Care (+2.9%) outperformed while Diversified Financials (-0.4%) and Energy (+0.7%) lagged. HSI/MXCN/CSI300 trade at forward P/E of 11.1x/11.9x/12.2x respectively (vs. 3-yr median of 11.7x/12.2x/12.7x).
Our view. June nonfarm payrolls came in well above expectations, while unemployment rate remained at low level. The solid jobs data should lower the likelihood for a rate cut in July. Fed’s statements, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before congress this week, will become investors’ key focus in near-term and have a major impact on the equity market. We remind investors of the forthcoming risks: 1). Consensus downwards revision following 1H results in August; 2). Slow progress or direction change of trade negotiation; 3). Poor macro data in both China and US. Key risks to watch: worse-than-expected macro and monetary data; potential pullback of US market; escalation of the Sino-US trade tension; strengthening of USD. Key catalysts: More easing policies; bilateral solution between the US and China; weakening of USD.