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China Banking Sector - Key takeaways from investors’ meetings

2019/6/7 6:10:19 来源:招商证券 作者: 人评论

作者:Felix LUO,Allen Feng时光:2019年06月06日重要性:普通报告行业评级:公司评级:相干股票代码:浏览权限: 该文章钻石卡、金卡、银卡客户可浏览全文摘要:Report title:China Banking Sector - Key takeaways from investors’ meetings Analyst:Felix LUO,Allen…

作者: Felix LUO,Allen Feng
时光: 2019年06月06日
重要性: 普通报告
行业评级:
公司评级:
相干股票代码:
浏览权限:   该文章钻石卡、金卡、银卡客户可浏览全文
摘要: Report title:China Banking Sector - Key takeaways from investors’ meetings
Analyst:Felix LUO,Allen Feng
Report type:Industry
Date:20190606
[Summary]

■ Some investors may consider bank stocks for undervalued play
■ Prefer large state-owned commercial banks
■ Maintain NEUTRAL; beware of growth of industrial enterprises' revenue

Investors may consider bank stocks for undervalued play
We met with dozens of investors in Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen to exchange views on China’s banking sector. While concurring that NIMs are under pressure and banks’ loan quality trend is currently uncertain, some investors may consider bank stocks for undervalued play with a range trading strategy. Investors are ready to buy if valuations reach historical low but will realize profits if share prices rise above a certain level.

Prefer large state-owned commercial banks
We recommend investors to focus on large state-owned commercial banks, given that: 1) some large state-owned banks are trading close to their historical low valuations (see figures); 2) PBOC and CBIRC have recently taken over control of Baoshang Bank and will guarantee all corporate deposits and interbank debts of less than RMB50 million. Compared with large state-owned banks, small and medium-sized banks possess higher asset-quality risks, and interbank liabilities make up larger proportions of their total liabilities. Against the backdrop of "removing implicit guarantees", the stability of liabilities decreases, and the operational risk increases for small and medium-sized banks. Thus we recommend avoiding small and medium-sized banks with poor asset quality and high interbank liabilities.

Maintain NEUTRAL
China’s banking sector is currently trading at ~0.64x 2019E P/B ratio. Maintain “NEUTRAL” rating for the sector, given that: 1) NIMs are under pressure partially due to rising average costs of term deposits and trimmed average mortgage loan rates; 2) Our strategy team believes it is still too early to assert that the economy is stabilizing and rebounding. Therefore banks' loan quality trend is still unclear. We recommend paying attention to YoY growths of industrial enterprises' revenue from May to July. If YoY growth continues to rebound (meaning that bank's NPL formation ratio may decline), we may upgrade our rating of the sector. Key catalysts: NIM expansion, upward asset quality trend. Key downside risks: NIM pressure, downward asset quality trend.

[投资评级界说]

公司短期评级

以报告日起6个月内,公司股价相对同期市场基准(沪深300指数)的表示为尺度:激烈引荐:公司股价涨幅超基准指数20%以上
谨慎引荐:公司股价涨幅超基准指数5-20%之间
中性:公司股价更改幅度相对基准指数介于±5%之间
回避:公司股价表示弱于基准指数5%以上

公司长期评级
A:公司长期竞争力高于行业均匀程度
B:公司长期竞争力与行业均匀程度分歧
C:公司长期竞争力低于行业均匀程度

[重要声明]
报告中的内容和看法仅供参考,并不组成对所述证券买卖的出价,在任何情形下,本报告中的信息或所表述的看法并不组成对任何人的投资建议。

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